US Intelligence Agencies Suggest that Iranians Mistakenly Shot Down Ukrainian Airliner

"ttyymmnn" (ttyymmnn) 01/09/2020 at 15:15 • Filed to: wingspan, Planelopnik

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The Ukraine International Airlines 737 crashed in flames a short time after Iran’s firing of missiles against US forces in Iraq, killing 170 passengers and crew from numerous countries , including many Iranians. American media outlets are reporting that US intelligence data shows the activation of Iranian air defense radars, while satellites detected the launch of two missiles. I t seems likely that somebody in Iran might have had an itchy trigger finger.

The Iranians still claim that a “technical fault” brought down the airliner, though they provide no evidence, and say that they had nothing to do with it. The black boxes have been recovered, but whether or not Iran shares the data they contain remains to be seen. Iran has barred US investigators and Boeing from taking part in the investigation, but Ukraine is sending a team of its own investigators .

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Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > ttyymmnn 01/09/2020 at 15:19

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If so, not a good look.

For Sweden > ttyymmnn 01/09/2020 at 15:21

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The only “technical fault” would be having a bunch of trigger-happy kids running a missile battery

CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever > ttyymmnn 01/09/2020 at 15:23

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Shock level 2/10

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > For Sweden 01/09/2020 at 15:23

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Happy New Year.

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > ttyymmnn 01/09/2020 at 15:24

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yeah... dutch news mentioned that us intelligence said iran shot it down

then the dutch news mentioned that us intelligence also said iraq had wmds and that the us of a would benefit from iran looking bad right about now (well...worse)

basically the news here said it might be true.... but dont take americas word for it

For Sweden > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 01/09/2020 at 15:24

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I hope it gets better quick!

For Sweden > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 01/09/2020 at 15:25

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News is also reporting Iran is clearing the accident site with bulldozers because ICAO (the UN aviation group) is as toothless as the rest of the UN

Ash78, voting early and often > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 01/09/2020 at 15:27

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Conversely, would we want to make another WMD mistake on the world stage again? Hopefully not. This story is much more plausible, IMO.

jimz > ttyymmnn 01/09/2020 at 15:30

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I dunno, Ukraine isn’t saying anything yet.  I’m suspicious this is just us trying to gin up support for going to war.  ‘cos that’s about all we do well anymore, fuck up other regions. 

Ash78, voting early and often > ttyymmnn 01/09/2020 at 15:31

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Tomorrow: Iran discovers prototype MCAS was installed on plane. Amazing how that happened! Sorry we melted it down for scrap, things are tough, ok?

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > For Sweden 01/09/2020 at 15:32

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wouldnt surprise me

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > For Sweden 01/09/2020 at 15:35

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I am really tired of winning.

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > Ash78, voting early and often 01/09/2020 at 15:35

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oh i wouldnt be surprised if its true...

but far as i know we are still a pretty pro american country.. least politics wise...so its kinda shocking how little trust remains (not surprising at mo tho)

TheTurbochargedSquirrel > ttyymmnn 01/09/2020 at 15:42

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I’ll believe the Ukrainians when they finish their investigation.

facw > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 01/09/2020 at 15:47

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Apparently Canada is saying that the information they’ve seen from the US looks accurate (there were ~60 Canadian citizens on the plane)

DipodomysDeserti > For Sweden 01/09/2020 at 15:49

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I would think a SAM has the ability to cause quite a few technical faults.

benn454 > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 01/09/2020 at 15:51

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 As an American, I agree. Let's see what the Ukrainians have to say about it.

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > facw 01/09/2020 at 15:53

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news here just mentioned that too... still saying we should be careful about just believing it

it seems like the most likely cause 

someassemblyrequired > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 01/09/2020 at 15:55

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Canadians have confirmed, given the huge number of family connections between Canada and Iran (even though there are not formal diplomatic links), they’re probably better informed about what’s happening in Iran than the US. Plus Trudeau has a beard now, so that adds extra credibility.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/trudeau-evidence-shows-iranian-missile-downed-ukraine-plane/2020/01/09/39c5cd04-331a-11ea-971b-43bec3ff9860_story.html

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > benn454 01/09/2020 at 15:55

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time will tell.... maybe

course...if anyone still knows who to believe by then is anyones guess

someassemblyrequired > ttyymmnn 01/09/2020 at 16:02

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Canadians are pissed at Iran and the US over this. Something like 138 of the passengers were Canadians or Canadian residents. While there’s clearly anger at Iran, there’s a sense plenty of blame can be laid at the feet of Cheeto-man and his army of media whackjobs.

Cé hé sin > ttyymmnn 01/09/2020 at 16:05

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No surprise, but what is surprising is that the Americans took so long to come up with this given that they have so much intelligence being gathered in the Midd le East.

benn454 > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 01/09/2020 at 16:07

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 I'm just tired of the dick waving. November can't get here soon enough. 

boredalways > someassemblyrequired 01/09/2020 at 16:08

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Thank you.  Unfortunately, our government needs to share blame here.

JustAnotherG6 > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 01/09/2020 at 16:15

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As an A merican, I don’t take America’s word for anything.

Derpwagon > Cé hé sin 01/09/2020 at 16:16

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Imagine collection, fusing, reviewing, vetting, confirming, and then declassifying information taking time. Just imagine.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > ttyymmnn 01/09/2020 at 16:17

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NYT is reporting they have footage

DipodomysDeserti > jimz 01/09/2020 at 16:24

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Ukraine has zero ability to detect whether or not a SAM was fired in Iran, and I think their president is done dealing with Americans for now

DipodomysDeserti > Ash78, voting early and often 01/09/2020 at 16:25

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A secret MCAS installed by Zionist  spies, j ust to make Iran look bad.

Ash78, voting early and often > DipodomysDeserti 01/09/2020 at 16:30

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Alibi: The Mossad was too busy getting Carlos Ghosn out of Japan at the time.

DipodomysDeserti > Cé hé sin 01/09/2020 at 16:33

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Took so long? Releasing classified military inform ation less than forty-eight hours after an  event actually seems way too fast. I was thinking they’d wait a we ek or so.

We most likely knew a plane had been shot down at about the same time as the Iranians who shit it down.

DipodomysDeserti > TheTurbochargedSquirrel 01/09/2020 at 16:34

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Their investigation is going to conclude that Joe Biden’s son shot the airliner down.

Only Vespas... > ttyymmnn 01/09/2020 at 16:41

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The 737 could have been shot down by a guy with a hand held MANPAD [Igla S] which has a smaller warhead than a big AA rocket. Big rockets blow things out of the sky, MANPADS damage things. That 737 had enough left in it to turn back to the airport. Who and Why? Let’s say there was a country that really likes to stir it up. [Russia]. And if they did want to shoot down an airliner...like they did  in Ukraine...which country’s airliner would they pick? Someone they are still kind of at war with? Ukraine. They got away with it once...

Dusty Ventures > ttyymmnn 01/09/2020 at 16:42

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New York Times apparently found a video of the missile hit

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/video/iran-plane-missile.html

ttyymmnn > For Sweden 01/09/2020 at 17:14

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NYT now has a video that they have confirmed the validity of (however they do that) that purports to show the actual missile launch and detonation.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/video/iran-plane-missile.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

ttyymmnn > DipodomysDeserti 01/09/2020 at 17:16

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The fact that there were no radio calls from the cockpit (that we know of) makes me wonder if the missile took out the cockpit crew. It’s my understanding that the missile doesn’t actually hit the plane, it explodes near it and shreds it with shrapnel.

ttyymmnn > DipodomysDeserti 01/09/2020 at 17:18

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According to The Warzone, the same infrared satellites that detected the ballistic missile launches against US forces also detected the SAM launches. They got the ballistic launches pegged with enough time to warn the troops and get them under cover, so they probably get that info in close to real time. 

For Sweden > ttyymmnn 01/09/2020 at 17:18

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Far, far less significant than the loss of life is how badly the Iranians have destroyed my professional plans for this week

ttyymmnn > Only Vespas... 01/09/2020 at 17:28

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Interesting theory. I’m still in the camp that some Iranian missile guy mistook the 737 for an F-14 F-15E.

You could go crazy with the possible conspiracies. Here’s one the I cooked up: Iranian moderates in the government were tired of Suleimani’s shit stirring . So they conspired with the Americans and let them know when the general was going to Baghdad. The Americans take him out. The Iranians get their pants in a bunch and launch a barrage of ballistic missiles, which end up hitting mostly empty hangars while harming no US or Iraqi personnel. That’s because Iran told the US they were going to launch them so our people could get under cover. Trump wins because the general is dead and he gets to look like a big dick swinger to his constituents. Iran wins because the general is dead and they got to look like big dick swingers to their citizens. The two sides shake on it and agree to de-escalate. Then, the moderates in Iran shoot down an airliner “by accident” so they can blame it all on the overzealous  Republican Guard. The whole thing is an inside job.

ttyymmnn > For Sweden 01/09/2020 at 17:29

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You’ve got a ticket to Tehran? Or Kyiv?

WiscoProud > ttyymmnn 01/09/2020 at 17:32

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I generally dislike the Daily Mail for anything other than hot, hot celebrity gossip, but they seem to have a video of what looks like a missile hitting the aircraft.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7870409/Video-appears-surface-air-missile-hitting-Ukrainian-plane-moments-crashed.html

ttyymmnn > WiscoProud 01/09/2020 at 17:36

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Yea, I saw that. Chilling. 

For Sweden > ttyymmnn 01/09/2020 at 17:41

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Meetings with people who now have more pressing priorities

Only Vespas... > ttyymmnn 01/09/2020 at 18:41

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Ooh. That’s good. The one thing about “accidental shoot down” is that US-PSR was a regularly scheduled flight. [ 1 hr late] Which make me skeptical a bout the “accident” part. Then again the USS Vincennes did shoot down an regularly scheduled Iran Air A300.  So many angles.  Iran and US in back channel communication....now let’s see if the Rep Guard gets the blame.

Distraxi's idea of perfection is a Jagroen > ttyymmnn 01/09/2020 at 18:51

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Called it!

kanadanmajava1 > For Sweden 01/09/2020 at 19:43

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The plane just took off from their capital’s largest airport. Not even a trigger happy idiot could make a mistake and think that this as an attacking enemy aircraft. This just doesn’t make much sense.

There was a picture of a Russian missile piece that was found near the crash site. But is it really a genuine picture? If it is then the local military guys shot the missile but who ordered them and why?

A b adly failed targeting practice using a civilian aircraft   is the only sensible theory that I could think up. Someone forgot to disable the actual trigger? But then they are likely to find people to take the blame (and get  death sentences).

For Sweden > kanadanmajava1 01/09/2020 at 19:46

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I trust the Canadian TSB’s analysis that this was a shootdown.

Only Vespas... > Only Vespas... 01/12/2020 at 05:33

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Oh.  The Republican Guard is taking the fall.  Trumpet fanfare?